Monday, December 30, 2013

AUDUSD Daily , Weekly Outlook for 30th December, 2013 (MONDAY)

AUDUSD Daily , Weekly Outlook for 30th December, 2013 (MONDAY)


Weekly Chart

  • Trend is Bearish
  • Stochastics is oversold but flat
  • RSI pointing slightly down and above 30
  • At a important level of support
Looking at the weekly, it seems oversold, however further downside is more appealing.  


Daily Chart


  • Trend is down
  • Stochastic is pointing down
  • RSI is around 30
Base on the Daily chart, I cannot trade it at these levels, Indicators are pointing lower , as the upside is limited as we previously tested last week. We will wait for the market to tell us what to do.



Hourly Chart



  • Trend is Down
  • Stochastic pointing up
  • BAT pattern , however upside limited
By the time i wrote this, I am too late to join the bat pattern play. On the upside resistance come at the 0.88720 and 0.8890, If market reaches there, we could have a short position.

Outlook Trade opportunity

Risky trade to hold longer times , so better trade scalps
#1 - Short from 0.8872
#2 - Short from 0.8890

Risk Level High


Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below



USDJPY Daily and Weekly Outlook for 30th December, 2013 (MONDAY)

USDJPY Daily and Weekly Outlook for 30th December, 2013 (MONDAY)


Weekly Chart



  • Trend is Bullish
  • Weekly candle is bullish
  • Stochastics is overbought but still going north (slightly)
  • RSI is near overbought
  • Clear break upwards from previous yearly high,
  • Long term descending trend line is near together with 61.8 retracement level
My view long term is bullish and will break out of the descending trend line. It appear to me that we are starting the C to D leg.

Daily Chart


  • Trend - Uptrend
  • Stochastic although overbought, still going north
  • RSI reading is above 70
  • Currently trading just below the 161.8 fib ext from the candle which broke the resistance - this might hold as short term resistance,
On the Daily Chart, it tells me it still wants to go north , and for real shorting opportunity I would be looking at the 200fib ext.  Currently trading just below the 161.8 fib ext from the candle which broke the resistance - this might hold as short term resistance, and maybe could have scalping opportunity for shorts in the hourly of lower. 

My view is that market should go up to the 106's , how it gets there is either we shoot up there, or retrace and test the breakout level at around 104.30 before going up


Hourly Chart



  • Trend - Bullish
  • Stochastic is pointing down from overbought zone
  • RSI also pointing down from overbought zone
  • We might want to retest breakout area from Friday which is also the Daily Pivot line 105.0
On the hourly shows good breakout from Friday, We might have a breather and retrace to retest the 105 before going north again.

Outlook Trade opportunity

#1 - Long at Daily pivot 105.00 with confirming price action.

#2 - For aggressive traders - currently opportunity to short and target Daily Pivot area (because of the indicators pointing south and price action early asian session)


Risk Level Medium


Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below



EURUSD Daily And Weekly Outlook for 30th December 2013 (Monday)

EURUSD Daily And Weekly Outlook for 30th December 2013 (Monday)


Weekly Chart


  • Trend - Bullish
  • Ascending Trend line since July 2013
  • Third weekly candles showing holding above 1.365-1.37 
  • Stochastics - Crossed / Down
  • Weekly Candle - Shooting star / Bearish
  •  Close to Weekly Descending Trend line which spans from 2008 , 2011 second touch, 2013/14 potential third touch
  • Clear rejection from 61.8% back from downtrend from 2011
  • Confluence of levels of 161.8 fib extension of first leg from July 2012 low to first week of Sept 2012
3 Bullish points, and 5 Bearish Points


Jan 2011 (same levels)
There are more bearish signals from my bullet point summary above, then there is bullish. However zooming into major support, we are still trading on major support level of 1.365-1.37 which we are holding for the third week.


If you look at the candles in January 2011, trading around the same levels which we are currently in, there were shooting stars showing bearish (3 x consecutive week), and finally the fourth and fifth week the bulls win the race and headed higher for many weeks after.

Currently pure price action this tells me it wants to go higher, 

  1. In October it broke this major level
  2. Following two weeks broke back below it,
  3. Then following 7 week we regained the drop and now trading back above the major level
  4. whats next? -  If it goes higher, I will target the 127.20fib ext (1.3970) which will have a potential butterfly pattern to the downside


Currently pure price action - this tells me it wants to go higher, but will it? .... lets see a lower time frame




Daily Chart


  • Trend Ascending / Bullish
  • Ascending Trend Line respected third touch
  • Stochastic are pointing upwards 
  • RSI reading is 60
  • Trading above major support
  • Friday candle is bearish (shooting star), however is in a messy area and not a clean area. - eg if you look left, what do you see? lots of action!
5 Bullish points, and 1 Bearish point


If I were to look at just Friday's candle alone, I would go short, however on a bigger picture where that candle is, its not appealing, and even if the short side of things, you have the ascending trend line + major resistance not far from.  

From my analysis on this daily chart, there are too many bullish points, at this stage any trade, I will look for a long opportunity.

Hourly Chart


  • Huge spike which hit the R2 Weekly Pivot and also the 127.20 extention
  • Stochastic are extremely oversold, and has crossed lines but not clear
  • RSI reading is around 50
  • The retrace is currently paused at around the 61.8 fib back (if drawn from the low of 20th of Dec


If we draw the fib from the 24th Dec low, we have broke the 61.8 back, and potentially looking for the 78.6 back which is last weeks pivot weekly / 1.37060 level , This will be a retest of the breakout level, which could potentially find new highs.  Any break below this area will have to reanalyze further trades direction

Still looks bullish to me



Outlook Trade opportunity

Please look at my hourly chart, I have two yellow levels, 

  • one at a 61.8 fib / 1.37270
  • second at the 78.6fib / previous wks pivot / 1.370 levels

If my forecast (bullish) is right, the question is will it retrace to my second entry, because after such strong move up? , safest way for entry is to wait for price action confirmation for entry

Risk Level - LOW


Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below


**Update** -
Entered long from my first level and waited for confirmation