AUDUSD Forecast and Trade Setup for 28th of Feb, 2014

AUDUSD Forecast and Trade Setup for 28th of Feb, 2014

Sentiment - Bullish

Daily Chart

• Pin bar at support performed
• Which is also the 38.2 from the lows to the recent highs)
• Trading in the Ichimuko Clouds 
• Inverse heads and shoulders 

Hourly Chart

• Inverse Head and Shoulders
• Rejected from Weekly S2 pivot and also trend line drawn

Outlook Trade opportunity

My view on the Aussie is bullish (which was the same view since last week)
Yesterday Daily candle closed with a very good pin bar from a support area, and we should take opportunity to get on to the bullish run to recent highs to test resistance and possibly break higher.

Risk Level LOW

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

EURAUD Cypher Setup for the week 26th Feb, 2014

EURAUD Cypher Setup for the week 26th Feb, 2014

Outlook Trade opportunity

Potential Cypher

• at minor support 
• X is also a MAJOR support
• The 78.6 (PRZ) is also near the 161.8 of last weeks high and this weeks low.

Risk Level LOW

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

EURJPY Daily Forecast and Trade setup for the week 26th Feb, 2014

EURJPY Daily Forecast and Trade setup for the week 26th Feb, 2014

Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

Hourly Chart

Outlook Trade opportunity

A Scalp Trade as I have spotted an area of overlapping fibs of 50% and 61.8% as well as inverse fib 127.20 ext of yesterdays low to high, There is also minor support at this level

Risk Level Medium

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

EURCAD Forecast and Trade setup for the week 26th Feb, 2014

EURCAD Forecast and Trade setup for the week 26th Feb, 2014

Daily Chart

• MACD negative divergence is spotted
• Monthly pivot is holding very well based on daily candles reaction there

Hourly Chart

Overall trend is bullish, looking for Scalp trades here,
I have one at the 50% retrace and 78.6% retrace

50% Retrace level - 

• Its a overlapping of a 23.6% from low of Jan and this months high,
• Its also a 127.20 fib ext of the highs from this last week
• Look left, its previous s and r

78.6% Retrace level - 

• Cypher Pattern (ugly one though)
• Overlapping 38.2% from low of Jan and this month's High
• Look Left, Previous Resis and Support (however you may argue there is a stronger one at the 100% obviously)

Outlook Trade opportunity

See Hourly Chart

Risk Level MEdium

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

AUDUSD Example of our winning trade with a Low risk high reward entry

AUDUSD Example of our winning trade with a Low risk high reward entry

As per my trade setup posted this morning, price actually reacted very well.

- We got a 3 to 1 win (Risk 9 pips, and gained 27 pips)

Note - closed my trade, although i still see a new high in the aussie

Here i'd like to share with you a very good strategy when entering trades.

Steps

1) Wait for Price to react from the level (best is 15% of 5 day ADR)

2) Enter at a 61.8 or 78.6 with stops at PRZ (few pips below)

• By doing this, you already eliminate the chance of price shooting through your anticipated level of reversal, so your chances / odds increase dramatically
• For scalpers, your win rate should be around 90% of the time if you take 1risk:1reward , usually we get 1:2

*If price doesn't get to fill our entry, doesn't matter! find another trade!

Advanced considerations

- If US Dollar pair, check the US Dollar Index Chart

- If Yen check the nikkei

- Also look at a highly correlated pair

 Happy Trading!

AUDUSD Daily Forecast and Trade Setup for 25th Feb, 2014

AUDUSD Daily Forecast and Trade Setup for 25th Feb, 2014

Hourly Chart

Outlook Trade opportunity

Level to watch is the 38% fib retrace level from yesterdays big run.
It is overlapping the 50% retrace from this months low to high level, as well as Monthly Pivot and Daily Pivot

Risk Level - Low

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

GBPJPY Forecast and Trade Setup for the week 24th Feb, 2014

GBPJPY Forecast and Trade Setup for the week 24th Feb, 2014

Weekly Chart

• Weekly performed a doji candle - a sign of uncertainty

Daily Chart

• Reached 2 trendlines / potential resistance and rejected from there giving us a pin bar candlestick pattern.

Hourly Chart

While writing this blog, i could see that there WAS a Bearish Cypher on the h4 chart which worked well with hitting minimum targets of this pattern. Anyway, it is too late to play this pattern.

With the Doji from Last week's candle - there could be good opportunity for scalps or range play while the market work itself out for the next move.

Outlook Trade opportunity

Please see hourly Chart, - I have a buy and a sell trade setup

Risk Level Medium

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

AUDUSD Forecast and Trade Setup for the week 24th Feb, 2014 - (Bullish Gartley is in play)

AUDUSD Forecast and Trade Setup for the week 24th Feb, 2014 - (Bullish Gartley is in play)

Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

Hourly Chart

My View from last Monday's analysis for the Aussie has changed from bearish to bullish. After holding price above the 90 level for majority of last week and price action of Daily Candle, Ichikumo also suggesting we should trade a higher. Also a correlated pair of EURUSD my view is that we will also trade higher, and if so, my view on the aussie matches up .
On Friday I have spotted a bullish gartley and bought it at the 78.6 , we have hit our first target, and still in and looking for above .90's target.

Outlook Trade opportunity

We are still in the bullish gartley trade from Friday

Risk Level Low

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

EURUSD (Awaiting Cypher Harmonic Pattern) Trade Setup & Forecast for the week 24th Feb, 2014

EURUSD (Cypher Harmonic Pattern coming?) Trade Setup & Forecast for the week 24th Feb, 2014

Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

Hourly Chart

I am still awaiting for this pattern to setup since last week analysis  .  Nothing much has changed, and potential reversal zone / entry zone is still looking likely.  

Outlook Trade opportunity

As per hourly Chart

Risk Level Low

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

AUSUSD Bullish Gartley setting up

AUSUSD Bullish Gartley setting up 

Outlook Trade opportunity

Would be careful here with the strong bearish run with no retracements,
however Point of 78.6 is also a Daily Pivot + 200ext of retrace earlier and a 161.8ext of yesterdays high to asian session low

Also previous daily candle is a pin bar, (bullish sign)

Safe trading

Risk Level __

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

AUDUSD Cypher Harmonic Pattern on the way to completion at very good levels

AUDUSD Cypher Harmonic Pattern on the way to completion at good levels

This is my third post on the Aussie today! This is because after such big swings, Its great for quick scalps and also look for hints on where the market might be heading.
I've been able to capture two small pips scalps from my previous post, resulting a 25% gain on my account (higher risk trade than my usual setup)

Whats exciting for this setup of a Bearish Cypher Pattern is that its in the trend of both higher time frame and shorter time frame. 

Shorter time frame (1hr) if you look on the previous 3 days, its been on a up trend. Creating new highs and higher lows, But yesterday you could see we have created new structure lows (lower lows) ,and another low today.  

• Start of bearish trend

Another point is to indicate that at the completion of this pattern / PRZ zone its also at a good resistance area, as well as a Pivot (yesterday's)

• PRZ at Resistance area
• PRZ at Confluence of pivot / fib

So we have very good reason to take a short when price goes there

Word of caution
we have 3 US Data in around few hours, and later we have the FOMC.

AUDUSD Levels to watch today (Scalp or trend continuation) - 19th Feb, 2014

AUDUSD Levels to watch today 19th Feb, 2014

Outlook Trade opportunity

There are two levels to watch as shown on chart (red and blue)

The stronger level is the blue where the daily pivot and 1hr Ichikumo Clouds are at


How to trade ?  
Zoom into a 5 min or 15 min chart Wait for price to get to those levels and see how it reacts, If it has a good bounce (10-15 pips reaction), then place your pending at a 61.8 retrace of the bounce.

Risk Level Low

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

AUDUSD - Hourly chart bearish signal - broken Ichikumo Clouds

AUDUSD - Hourly chart bearish signal - broken Ichimoku clouds

Aussie is very heavy, and broke through hourly ichikumo clouds, which is a bearish signal.

For Levels and trades

Please review my analysis from Monday 

http://daily-forex-trader.blogspot.com.au/2014/02/audusd-trade-setup-forecast-for-week_17.html

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

AUDUSD - Trade Setup & Forecast for the week 17th Feb, 2014

AUDUSD - Trade Setup & Forecast for the week 17th Feb, 2014

The Aussie did fill my short setup and got our 1:1, however it had recovered all of the drop, so where is it heading? 

Daily Chart

• Trading into the clouds
• Next major resistance is the fib level 38.2
• Stochastic Negative divergence

Hourly Chart

• 4hr ichikumo clouds is bullish (daily is bearish and trading in the clouds)
• MACD negative divergence
• The next move for the aussie is important, - as currently we have a minor support at 0.90030, if this holds, we will see further upside, and if it fails, then our bearish targets should be met.

Outlook Trade opportunity

We are still in our short trade (however i took partial profit when hit 1:1 last week)
NO further setups identified

Risk Level __

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

GBPJPY Trade Setup & Forecast for the week 17th Feb, 2014

GBPJPY Trade Setup & Forecast for the week 17th Feb, 2014

Weekly Chart

After the pin bar 2 wks ago, bullish momentum respected the price action from the support and stochastic respecting this idea. MACD however is not in the same wave length , and is crossing into bearish

Daily Chart

• Trading into bottom of the ascending trend line which we broke - which could become resistance
• Trading into the 61.8 retrace and if we look at the ichimuko clouds, we are trading in the clouds but heading to the top of the clouds (resis)
• Stochastic is overbought

Heading into resistance , would look at opportunity to short

Hourly Chart

• Currently price is seeing some reaction from the 61.8 level however because this level is too close to the support, i am not comfortable opening short trades unless a quick scalp
• I have two short trades (blue and black), - blue is also a supply and demand trade

Outlook Trade opportunity

I would be looking at price action at both of these levels before placing counter trades. This is because price action wise it is still in a very bullish momentum.
If however prices goes to my sell area, macd and stochastic should be diverging which gives it more reason to short it (for a small profit 1:1 or 1:2)

Risk Level Medium And High

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

EURUSD (Cypher Harmonic Pattern coming?) Trade Setup & Forecast for the week 17th Feb, 2014

EURUSD Trade Setup & Forecast for the week 17th Feb, 2014

(Cypher Harmonic Pattern coming?)

Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

Hourly Chart

Last week my trade setup for short worked very well, For those who followed it had a capacity for around 100pips. However i did not expect the bullish momentum to be so strong for the euro.
Anyways, working what the chart tells us, here is my next trade setup. With the bullish momentum and price breaking through resistance, i won't be suprised for price to hit my sell zone.

This zone has confluence levels of 78.6 fib, 161.8 fib ext, 127.2 & 200inverse fib ext, as well as weekly R2 pivot, they are all within few pips of each other, and three overlapping as well. - You couldn't get much better confluence so this looks exciting. Then when i took a view of the chart zoomed out, what i saw is a cypher pattern setting up - therefore i've drawn in the triangle for harmonic pattern traders to see.

Outlook Trade opportunity

Look at the H4 chart

Risk Level - LOW

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

USDJPY Trade Setup & Forecast for the week 17th Feb, 2014

USDJPY Trade Setup & Forecast for the week 17th Feb, 2014

Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

Hourly Chart

There is a few uncertainty with this pair, I have a Buy setup on the hourly chart, however traders need to becareful, as if it gets to that price, on the daily, price will break the clouds signalling a bearish trend, however it could be a false break. Having said that, the multiple exact confluence of fib levels is quite strong to give it a push.

Outlook Trade opportunity

Please see Hourly Chart

Risk Level Medium

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) - (Trading into Support?) Forecast for the week 17th Feb, 2014

US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) - Forecast for the week 17th Feb, 2014

(Trading into Support?)

*chart says 'resistance' typo - should be 'support'

The US Dollar Index is trading into important support area, with confluence of fib levels and pivots as well.  (79.70 is the level to watch). If it gets down there, trading US dollar crosses for scalp trades should setup very well for scalpers.

EURAUD (Trading into strong support again)Forecast and Trade Setup 12th Feb, 2014

EURAUD (Trading into strong support again)Forecast and Trade Setup 12th Feb, 2014

Daily Chart

Hourly Chart

The EURAUD is trading into important Support, There is a few things which indicates a long position at these levels

• H4 Macd Divergence
• Flat Kinyo which has a higher chance for price to reverse
• Weekly And Monthly S1 Pivots

For this reason we will be placing long position for an initial target at the 38.2% retrace of down leg

Outlook Trade opportunity

Buy Trade @ support.

Risk Level __

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

GBPUSD - Scalp Trade setup at a pull back (Noble entry)

GBPUSD - Scalp Trade setup at a pull back (Noble entry) 

GBPNZD Trade Setup & Forecast for the week 10th Feb, 2014

GBPNZD Trade Setup & Forecast for the week 10th Feb, 2014

Daily Chart

Hourly Chart

This is a Cypher pattern which I were monitoring last week , but not posted on my blog because its not a pair I normally trade. However, it had penetrated the 78.6 level on the D, but due to the smaller time frame price action, it had shown me some bullish momentum for me to take a punt on longs towards the minimum B level for a 1:1 and potential upwards to new highs.

Outlook Trade opportunity

Current Long trade is in, however a future Short setup is spotted on the daily

Risk Level - na

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

USDCAD - Trade Setup & Forecast for the week 10th Feb, 2014

USDCAD - Trade Setup & Forecast for the week 10th Feb, 2014

Daily Chart

Hourly Chart

Outlook Trade opportunity

Our trade on completion of the cypher pattern has been filled On Friday and is still going. We have taken half trade off as we have hit our first tp level

Risk Level - Low

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

GBPJPY Trade Setup & Forecast for the week 10th Feb, 2014

GBPJPY Trade Setup & Forecast for the week 10th Feb, 2014

Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

Hourly Chart

Outlook Trade opportunity

Our Long trade setup from last week was successful with gains up to 400 pips. My bias however we should continue the bearish momentum for one more low before any continuation to the upside.
Therefore my Short trade setup would be at the 127.2 ext of last weeks range and which also is around the 61.8 retrace from the leg down (from 23rd Jan)

Risk is high because if you look at the weekly chart, last weeks candle is a strong pin bar

Risk Level HIGH -

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

AUDUSD Trade Setup & Forecast for the week 10th Feb, 2014

AUDUSD Trade Setup & Forecast for the week 10th Feb, 2014

Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

Hourly Chart

The completion of the Cypher pattern which I identified around 2 wks ago, is near to completion. Stochastic on Daily is in overbought territory and as you can see a very high reading

**CORRECTION** - My fibs not drawn correctly therefore cypher is actually completed on Friday,.

Outlook Trade opportunity

Cypher Pattern

Risk Level - Low

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below