EURUSD Daily And Weekly Outlook for 30th December 2013 (Monday)
Weekly Chart
- Trend - Bullish
- Ascending Trend line since July 2013
- Third weekly candles showing holding above 1.365-1.37
- Stochastics - Crossed / Down
- Weekly Candle - Shooting star / Bearish
- Close to Weekly Descending Trend line which spans from 2008 , 2011 second touch, 2013/14 potential third touch
- Clear rejection from 61.8% back from downtrend from 2011
- Confluence of levels of 161.8 fib extension of first leg from July 2012 low to first week of Sept 2012
3 Bullish points, and 5 Bearish Points
 |
| Jan 2011 (same levels) |
There are more bearish signals from my bullet point summary above, then there is bullish. However zooming into major support, we are still trading on major support level of 1.365-1.37 which we are holding for the third week.
If you look at the candles in January 2011, trading around the same levels which we are currently in, there were shooting stars showing bearish (3 x consecutive week), and finally the fourth and fifth week the bulls win the race and headed higher for many weeks after.
Currently pure price action this tells me it wants to go higher,
- In October it broke this major level
- Following two weeks broke back below it,
- Then following 7 week we regained the drop and now trading back above the major level
- whats next? - If it goes higher, I will target the 127.20fib ext (1.3970) which will have a potential butterfly pattern to the downside
Currently pure price action - this tells me it wants to go higher, but will it? .... lets see a lower time frame
Daily Chart
- Trend Ascending / Bullish
- Ascending Trend Line respected third touch
- Stochastic are pointing upwards
- RSI reading is 60
- Trading above major support
- Friday candle is bearish (shooting star), however is in a messy area and not a clean area. - eg if you look left, what do you see? lots of action!
5 Bullish points, and 1 Bearish point
If I were to look at just Friday's candle alone, I would go short, however on a bigger picture where that candle is, its not appealing, and even if the short side of things, you have the ascending trend line + major resistance not far from.
From my analysis on this daily chart, there are too many bullish points, at this stage any trade, I will look for a long opportunity.
Hourly Chart
- Huge spike which hit the R2 Weekly Pivot and also the 127.20 extention
- Stochastic are extremely oversold, and has crossed lines but not clear
- RSI reading is around 50
- The retrace is currently paused at around the 61.8 fib back (if drawn from the low of 20th of Dec
If we draw the fib from the 24th Dec low, we have broke the 61.8 back, and potentially looking for the 78.6 back which is last weeks pivot weekly / 1.37060 level , This will be a retest of the breakout level, which could potentially find new highs. Any break below this area will have to reanalyze further trades direction
Still looks bullish to me
Outlook Trade opportunity
Please look at my hourly chart, I have two yellow levels,
- one at a 61.8 fib / 1.37270
- second at the 78.6fib / previous wks pivot / 1.370 levels
If my forecast (bullish) is right, the question is will it retrace to my second entry, because after such strong move up? , safest way for entry is to wait for price action confirmation for entry
Risk Level - LOW
Tips -
Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below
**Update** -
Entered long from my first level and waited for confirmation
