AUDUSD Medium Term Outlook & Trade Setup - 28th November, 2014

AUDUSD Medium Term Outlook & Trade Setup - 28th November, 2014

Broke Yearly Lows, another low is vulnerable
Weekly Chart

nb - Weekly Candle has not complete, as this is taken on a start of a Friday Session

Comments-

We have broke yearly lows with good conviction, and this could be a start of another run to fresh lows we haven't seen since 2010. With the following technical factors pointing to the downside, We should not fight the trend.

• RSI hidden negative Divergence
• Just broke support / yearly low lows with a retest
• In a Downward channel yet to touch the bottom of it
• Next Major support on the Weekly is at around the 0.80 area

Daily Chart

(note friday candle has not closed)

Comments: 

A little bit different on the Daily Time frame, where Major Support is actually been tested on Wednesday where it produced a Hammer Formation Candle, however on the following day we get a shooting star formation.  

At this stage, it would be interested to see how Friday closes / end of week and month.  But if you can imagine, unless something dramatic happens, the Monthly Candle will look ugly, facing further losses next month.

Outlook Trade opportunity

Heres my plan.
For Day Traders / scalps - 

#1 - at the current level, if it retest and produced confirming candle for longs, scalp to the long side.

#2 - If lows break, then take a breakout trade to the downside

Longer term, trading in the trend
If currently short could take partials and leave a small portion to ride it towards new lows.

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

AUDNZD Medium Term Outlook and Potential Trade Setup - 26th November, 2014

AUDNZD Medium Term Outlook and Potential Trade Setup - 26th November, 2014

We may see price fill the gap left from June 2014. However, a double top on the weekly ! - here's my view on how to trade this on a medium to long term trade

Weekly Chart

• Double topped on a weekly at resistance
• Also at the second retest of resistance - from my Ichimoku analysis, its also at the edge of the clouds (confluence of resistance as well), so would need accumulation of more buyers at a better price to break resistance if it was to do so.

Daily Chart

• Trendline is broken and currently heading towards support and also close to filling the Gap from July 2014
• If this support holds and provide a daily and weekly pin bar , this could be a valid trade, but with caution as momentum and technical studies suggest break of support is more likely than hold
• Would be interested to buy at 78.6 fib retrace level around the 1.077

Outlook Trade opportunity

With the double top on the weekly (tripple on daily) I could see price retrace back towards the 1.07 before another attempt back to the upside with the view of breaking 2014 highs

- Plan A - (Medium to Long term trade) Buy at 78.6 FIb (1.077)

- Plan B - *Higher risk* (intra-week trade) if 61.8 holds with confirming Daily Candle / or weekly - could trade also

Risk Level -

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below