USDJPY Daily Outlook for 16th December, 2013 (Monday)

USDJPY Daily Outlook for 16th December, 2013 (Monday)

Daily Chart

" Could this be it?"

Interesting one to look at on a daily chart and with the exhaustion candle from Friday,  It shows this could be it and we are going south now, so based on the daily confluence of the below points - I would go short

• As I mentioned on Friday, until we make a lower low in a daily chart, we are still in a uptrend
• Divergence
• Tried to penetrate previous highs, but failed to close the day above.
• Exhaustion Candle from Friday
• Bearish Butterfly pattern is formed (identified last week) - however still valid if we were to go higher to 105
• Note - Weekly Chart candle - shows some indication and momentum to the upside

Hourly Chart

"103.00 shows good rejection pins"

After trying new highs on Friday , it has rejected hard but found support at the 103.00 area, Based on the hourly chart, I still can see upside possibility even though in the daily we have a bearish bat, however this pattern is still valid up till around the 105-106 area, which suggest maybe we could go higher on the event a possible no taper from the fed?

• Price action seems to have found support at 103, 
• I am bias toward going higher on this C to D leg to break highs and close above

Outlook Trade opportunity

Please see my Illustration, 

The blue area is where we will go long entry, 

The Red is where our stops will be (or few pips below the red)

The Green is where I think prices should go, 

Take profit area - Please take partial profit, as we reach minor resis / fib levels / Daily Pivots

**Updated Monday 04:20GMT - Above setup is invalidated, Prices went below red area (where stops ) Resulted in a approx 15pip loss.
Current prices is around the 102.720 which is a 200Fib extention from the initial down move, so a possible scalping is here, which i will take now

Cheers

Risk Level Low to Medium

Tips -

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