AUDNZD - Update 3rd December, 2014

AUDNZD - Update 3rd December, 2014

This is an update to the analysis I did last week, where I was expecting the AUDNZD to drop to the current levels and hold and possible buy.However with the dramatic fall / strong momentum to the downside, I have scratched my long trade.

Daily Chart

Weekly Quick View

• With the huge weekly bear and Monthly candle, It would be difficult to stop the bears
• We also are seeing fresh new lows on the AUDUSD
• Gold however we saw a huge rally back above 1200 level, (Positive for AUD strength, however we are not seeing this)
• DXY / US dollar we held above 88, and is on the way up towards 89-90 (Negative for AUD strength)
• 
  

Outlook Trade opportunity

Stay short or sell the break of current daily support towards 1.07

Risk Level __

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

AUDUSD Medium Term Outlook & Trade Setup - 28th November, 2014

AUDUSD Medium Term Outlook & Trade Setup - 28th November, 2014

Broke Yearly Lows, another low is vulnerable
Weekly Chart

nb - Weekly Candle has not complete, as this is taken on a start of a Friday Session

Comments-

We have broke yearly lows with good conviction, and this could be a start of another run to fresh lows we haven't seen since 2010. With the following technical factors pointing to the downside, We should not fight the trend.

• RSI hidden negative Divergence
• Just broke support / yearly low lows with a retest
• In a Downward channel yet to touch the bottom of it
• Next Major support on the Weekly is at around the 0.80 area

Daily Chart

(note friday candle has not closed)

Comments: 

A little bit different on the Daily Time frame, where Major Support is actually been tested on Wednesday where it produced a Hammer Formation Candle, however on the following day we get a shooting star formation.  

At this stage, it would be interested to see how Friday closes / end of week and month.  But if you can imagine, unless something dramatic happens, the Monthly Candle will look ugly, facing further losses next month.

Outlook Trade opportunity

Heres my plan.
For Day Traders / scalps - 

#1 - at the current level, if it retest and produced confirming candle for longs, scalp to the long side.

#2 - If lows break, then take a breakout trade to the downside

Longer term, trading in the trend
If currently short could take partials and leave a small portion to ride it towards new lows.

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

AUDNZD Medium Term Outlook and Potential Trade Setup - 26th November, 2014

AUDNZD Medium Term Outlook and Potential Trade Setup - 26th November, 2014

We may see price fill the gap left from June 2014. However, a double top on the weekly ! - here's my view on how to trade this on a medium to long term trade

Weekly Chart

• Double topped on a weekly at resistance
• Also at the second retest of resistance - from my Ichimoku analysis, its also at the edge of the clouds (confluence of resistance as well), so would need accumulation of more buyers at a better price to break resistance if it was to do so.

Daily Chart

• Trendline is broken and currently heading towards support and also close to filling the Gap from July 2014
• If this support holds and provide a daily and weekly pin bar , this could be a valid trade, but with caution as momentum and technical studies suggest break of support is more likely than hold
• Would be interested to buy at 78.6 fib retrace level around the 1.077

Outlook Trade opportunity

With the double top on the weekly (tripple on daily) I could see price retrace back towards the 1.07 before another attempt back to the upside with the view of breaking 2014 highs

- Plan A - (Medium to Long term trade) Buy at 78.6 FIb (1.077)

- Plan B - *Higher risk* (intra-week trade) if 61.8 holds with confirming Daily Candle / or weekly - could trade also

Risk Level -

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

Bragging time - Sneak preview of my wins and losses - Back from my holidays, now back to Trading!

Update - As i haven't updated my blog since my holidays!

4.3% Gain in Two days, Approx 80% win ratio

--sorry no analysis here, just gonna brag a little on a look back on the trades i took these two days

After spending a nice week in Fiji with my wife and 1yr old son, I am finally back at my office, with a refreshed and relaxed and full of vitamin D in my body. :)

Arrived Wednesday so Thursday was my first trading day of the week., so far so good, market gave very good trading opportunity for me... here are a few screenshots of the trades

Start with the bad -
2 loosing trades

Then with the good -
7 Winning Trades

Banked 4.3% Gain in two days. 

Currently have open trades with max risk of 2%, and will be scaling down to reduce my risk to >1% if were to hold over the weekend

WTI Oil- Trendline Break - Bounce expected - 7th Nov, 2014

WTI Oil- Trendline Break - Bounce expected  - 7th Nov, 2014

H4 Chart

• Oil is finally showing some support from the Support at 77.
• H4 Trendline break has occurred to further support a small reversal
• Resistance is around the 80 level - but stronger resis is at 84

Outlook Trade opportunity

Could look for opportunity to long it however lower your risk appetite as its countertrend

Risk Level __

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

XAUUSD Gold found some support - Update 7th November, 2014

XAUUSD Gold found some support - Update 7th November, 2014

Daily Chart

• Above is a chart Dated back to 2010 to show the support levels we are currently at

Hourly Chart

• On a 4hr Chart, you could see that it produced a good pin bar from the support and inverse 127.2 fib - right at 1131

Outlook Trade opportunity

Could be interested for a pull back to resistance at 1150 for a price action signal to go short. Please refer to the Daily Chart where the 1150 was a good flip zone therefore This level should act as strong resistance

Risk Level __

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

DXY US Dollar Index 4hr Bearish Engulfing Candle at Resistance -

DXY US Dollar Index 4hr Bearish Engulfing Candle at Resistance

4 Hour Chart

- As per the post from yesterday on approaching resistance, we now have this bearish engulfing candle at major resistance while most majors are at support

Outlook Trade opportunity

Short on a pullback with very small risk in pips.
Good thing about this trade is on a Daily chart, RSI and MACD has negative divergence

Risk Level LOW -

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

Before and after view on AUDUSD trade

Before and after view on AUDUSD trade

Just playing with my new iphone app for photos here. So sharing a trade i did

50 pips on this breakout trade in a few hrs. I also closed another trade whichh i shorted few days ago.

 Choose the right pair to short against the strong us dollar and the odds are in your favor!

AUDUSD Update and Trade Setup 5th November, 2014

AUDUSD Update 5th November, 2014

Daily Chart

• As gold breaks serious support, AUDUSD follows with a lag
• With my other post on the DXY, its hitting resistance, so this trade could be a little more riskier 

Hourly Chart

• Finally broke out of a range breaking support and new lows for the year.
• Targets are around the 0.858

Outlook Trade opportunity

If market gives a retrace back to the breakout level, zoom into a 15min / 1hr chart for entry

Risk Level - Medium

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

DXY US DOLLAR INDEX Update - 5th November 2014

DXY US DOLLAR INDEX Update - 5th November 2014

Daily Chart

• Approaching Resistance - haven't seen these levels since 2010
• Above there the next resistance is at around 89.00 however, in this range it could be very choppy according to the price action from 2004-2006
• Although False breakouts are statistically lower odds than real breakouts, the chance for a false break / or reversal are higher due to the obvious negative divergence on MACD and RSI. Perhaps we will know by end week as we have Non Farms on Friday.

Outlook Trade opportunity

Cautious at these levels

Risk Level __

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

My daily routine as a forex trader

Daily routine

As i live in Australia and mainly focus on late asia and london open i have the privilege to sleep in a little. My day always start with a coffee and a fresh mindset. Then i review my charts looking at the pairs i concentrate on. Review the economic calender and prepare on potential trades for the day. If i feel not right or not in sync with the markets i tell myself to step away. Rememeber that we dont need to trade everyday.! Preserve our capital! 

Below are just a few things i always remind myself

-nobody is forcing you to trade

-if i have two loosing trades in a day , my day is over

-i will not take more than 3 trades a day with smaller risk after the first winner.

-enjoy your work but never want it to be too exciting as if you feel that way you might be riding a rollercoaster ride (not consistant)

P.s i am writing this post on my iphone while having my morning coffee so excuse me for typos. :)

EURUSD Price Action Setup - 31st October, 2014

EURUSD Price Action Setup - 31st October, 2014

Daily Chart

Hourly Chart

• Support level supported by a Daily candle close at support
• 4hr candle also showing the same
• Supporting analysis on a failing rally on the US Dollar Index / USDCHF is the factor supporting this counter trend trade here.

Outlook Trade opportunity

We are looking at around a 1.5 :1 reward to risk here, with buy limit at around the 50-61.8% fib retrace of the bounce from support.

You can also wait for a 1hr Price action candle setup and enter with more conviction

Risk Level Medium - Note we are doing counter trend trade here

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

US Dollar Index DXY & USDCHF Potential failing rally on a Cypher Pattern - 27th Oct, 2014

US Dollar Index DXY & USDCHF Potential failing rally on a Cypher Pattern - 27th Oct, 2014

Hourly Chart

Outlook Trade opportunity

The Cypher on the DXY chart is a much better 78.6 where it is at a good Resistance level, however on the USDCHF its not as significant. How we may play this is we can also anticipate that the dollar strength might fail to rally to new highs for the meantime and some weakness is to come. Being the case we could play the majors dollar crosses and find the strongest currency against the USD to go long.

Risk Level __

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

GBPNZD - Medium Term Outlook - 27th October, 2014

GBPNZD - Medium Term Outlook - 27th October, 2014

Wkly Chart

• We have seen rejection at the 2.10, after breaking resistance which now comes in at support 2.04 where now could have a range bound trading.

Daily Chart

• 
  

Outlook Trade opportunity

Medium term i favor the upside, therefore if prices to fall to the low 2's , we could go long
note - will look at the GBPUSD and NZDUSD (with NZDUSD heading to new lows and GBPUSD holding or at strong support)

Risk Level __

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

AUDUSD Update Medium Term Forecast

AUDUSD Update Medium Term Forecast - 27th October, 2014

Weekly Chart

• Watch for RSI on a retest of the channel

Daily Chart

• After hitting Yearly lows, the Aussie has held but in a very range bound between .865-.88,
• Resistance should come in around 0.895-.90
• Note - please watch RSI on a close above.

Outlook Trade opportunity

Looking for clearly price action - to the downside

Risk Level __

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

GBPUSD Medium Term Forecast - 10th October, 2014

GBPUSD Medium Term Forecast - 10th October, 2014

Targets @ 1.58 - 1.57 approx...?

Weekly Chart

• Will be interested to see how the week ends and where the candle will close (below or above the trendline / triangle we had on the weekly)

Daily Chart

• Yesterday's daily candle is a good signal for continuation
• Next support comes in at 1.585 where we might get a bounce
• If prices break this level, then the next support will be a strong one where it meets the mid point of 2013 as well as two strong fib levels of 161.8 fib, and 61.8 fib

- note the black lines are support and resistance lines identified using a line chart

Outlook Trade opportunity

Short preferred till next support at 1.585

Risk Level __

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

AUDUSD Targets 0.81

AUDUSD Targets 0.81

Monthly Chart

• September Monthly candle close engulfed nearly the whole years gain

Weekly Chart

• We are approaching very rapidly to test 2014 lows, and with the strong pressure, I favor the targets towards 0.81 of this Decades Low

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

EURAUD Trade setup - 30th September, 2014

EURAUD Trade setup - 30th September, 2014

Outlook Trade opportunity

Wait for close below 1.44200 for short targetting 1.43400-600

Risk Level LOW

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

USDCAD Forecast and Trade setup for the week ending 12th September, 2014

USDCAD Forecast and Trade setup for the week ending 12th September, 2014

Weekly Chart

• If we stay above support, this area is wide and previously had huge movements .

Daily Chart

• Staying above support with many tails , as well as Two EMA is looking to cross
• Note there is weakening and negative RSI divergence

Hourly Chart

Outlook Trade opportunity

Could be ranging, but favour long trades

Risk Level Low

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

USDJPY Forecast and Trade setup for the week ending 12th September, 2014

USDJPY Forecast and Trade setup for the week ending 12th September, 2014

Weekly Chart

• Strong resistance - needs to see clear break for continuation

Daily Chart

• Indecisive candle close on friday, , however i still favor the upside as the retracements are very shallow

Hourly Chart

• There is negative divergence on all three indicators - i expect some minor pressure, and price to go into the low - mid 104 and look for a bounce

Outlook Trade opportunity

Long trade around the low 104

Risk Level __

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

JPN225 Forecast for the week ending 12th September, 2014

JPN225 Forecast for the week ending 12th September, 2014

Weekly Chart

• Although we are at strong resistance, the candle closed positively in the zone, i would expect that we would break resistance

Daily Chart

• As we drill down to the daily time frame, we can see that there is some good resistance yet to be tested. We would need clearly price action to know where it want to head to

Hourly Chart

• Looks more likely to the upside as we only see shallow retracements for now

Outlook Trade opportunity

Long trades prefer, but need to be careful with strong resistance nearing.

Risk Level __

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below