USDJPY Daily Outlook for 16th December, 2013 (Monday)

USDJPY Daily Outlook for 16th December, 2013 (Monday)

Daily Chart

" Could this be it?"

Interesting one to look at on a daily chart and with the exhaustion candle from Friday,  It shows this could be it and we are going south now, so based on the daily confluence of the below points - I would go short

• As I mentioned on Friday, until we make a lower low in a daily chart, we are still in a uptrend
• Divergence
• Tried to penetrate previous highs, but failed to close the day above.
• Exhaustion Candle from Friday
• Bearish Butterfly pattern is formed (identified last week) - however still valid if we were to go higher to 105
• Note - Weekly Chart candle - shows some indication and momentum to the upside

Hourly Chart

"103.00 shows good rejection pins"

After trying new highs on Friday , it has rejected hard but found support at the 103.00 area, Based on the hourly chart, I still can see upside possibility even though in the daily we have a bearish bat, however this pattern is still valid up till around the 105-106 area, which suggest maybe we could go higher on the event a possible no taper from the fed?

• Price action seems to have found support at 103, 
• I am bias toward going higher on this C to D leg to break highs and close above

Outlook Trade opportunity

Please see my Illustration, 

The blue area is where we will go long entry, 

The Red is where our stops will be (or few pips below the red)

The Green is where I think prices should go, 

Take profit area - Please take partial profit, as we reach minor resis / fib levels / Daily Pivots

**Updated Monday 04:20GMT - Above setup is invalidated, Prices went below red area (where stops ) Resulted in a approx 15pip loss.
Current prices is around the 102.720 which is a 200Fib extention from the initial down move, so a possible scalping is here, which i will take now

Cheers

Risk Level Low to Medium

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

AUDJPY Daily Outlook for 16th December, 2013 (Monday)

AUDJPY Daily Outlook for 16th December, 2013 (Monday)

Daily Chart

"Ended the Week Lower"

Last week was a interesting one where we have fully retraced the previous week's gain.  However good support is still at the 38.2% retrace of around 91.890.  If we look at the indicators, and draw a trendline from the lows Friday's action has broke through that trendline.  

It will be an interesting week ahead and if i base my analysis purely on the daily chart, and because of the indicator trendline broken to the downside,  it seems it likes to break the support and find the next support at 91.10 (50% retrace). (BUT PLEASE READ MY FORECAST ON THE HOURLY CHART)

• In a downward channel
• Stochastics Trendline broken

Hourly Chart

On Friday It traded pretty much in a range from Thursdays Europe and NY Session. It will be interesting what Monday open will give us.  

• Traded in range of Thursdays European and NY session

Below is a 4 hourly chart, where I have illustrated my forecast of this pair in the very near term (this week).  If it goes to my forecast, then we are here for a harmonic trade of a bearish bat pattern.

• We are now on the C to D leg of the bat pattern
• My Bias is on Monday we will open higher, and on a retest and hold of monday's daily pivot we can go long so we can ride the wave up to D

Outlook Trade opportunity

I believe there is a good possibility we are creating a bearish bat, and we are on the C to D leg.  

#1 If market tests Daily S1, Go long take partial profit at Daily Pivot, R1 and so on
#2 If market open higher and Daily pivot holds, go long Take partial profit at R1

Note - good money management required for this trade if you want to ride it up, For intraday traders, you could probably just take profit at the first reached pivot (approx 40-50pips profit)

Risk Level Medium - High

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below