AUDJPY Daily Outlook for 9th December ,2013 (Monday)
Daily Chart
"Still in a Downtrend, however there is a big bullish candle on friday. Trendline still in play"
On Friday it ended the day with a huge bullish candle, recovering the losses from Wednesday and Thursday. In terms of the trend, the downward trendline still is in play and we are close to touching it
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Week closed with pretty much the same as the weekly open price, and gave us a strong pin bar. Having said that, the price level is at the 38.2% retrace from oct 2012 low to march 2013 high. Purely looking at the weekly, i only would be interested to go short when it test a higher level - prefrebly the 61.80 retrace of downward move from march 2013 / which confluences the level of 23.60 of upward retrace from oct 2012 to march 2013.
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On Friday it ended the day with a huge bullish candle, recovering the losses from Wednesday and Thursday. In terms of the trend, the downward trendline still is in play and we are close to touching it
- Divergence spotted on Friday and reacted well
- Downward trendline still in play and we are very close to it
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Weekly Chart
"A good pin bar has developed, however chart wise, it seems it has broken out of a Rising wedge which is a continuation pattern towards the downside"
Week closed with pretty much the same as the weekly open price, and gave us a strong pin bar. Having said that, the price level is at the 38.2% retrace from oct 2012 low to march 2013 high. Purely looking at the weekly, i only would be interested to go short when it test a higher level - prefrebly the 61.80 retrace of downward move from march 2013 / which confluences the level of 23.60 of upward retrace from oct 2012 to march 2013.
- Weekly Pin bar (very strong)
- A rising wedge is broken meaning a continuation to the downside
- Confusing...
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Hourly Chart- Is too confusing, so i have analysed the 4H chart
"There was a continuation of 7 x 4hr bullish candle after a break of the falling wedge / triangle on friday"
There was a continuation of 7 x 4hr bullish candle after a break of the falling wedge / triangle on friday. The upside is limited with the trendline in play.
- Although i have not drawn in a downward channel, it seems there is one in play if the top trendline is respected.
- Note the stochastics is at the 100 level! and divergence (not strong) where it performed a higher high from 2 dec, but price did not perform a higher high from 2 dec.
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Outlook Trade opportunity
At this stage, because the upside we have TWO trendline in play which we are very close to and one is touching, and a 4h chart spotted the stochastics divergence and also a very overbought number of '100', it seems this is a very risky pair to trade.Note we have important Japan data early Asian session
Two scenarios
Long trades we will be looking for price to retrace to retest the 93 handle. And please take caution.
Short Trades - (more ideal) when it touches longer trendline or Last weeks high at around 94 handle.
I have entered my short at 93.993 after confirmation of a downward intraday trend
ReplyDeleteFirst TP is Fridays High,