USDJPY Daily Outlook for 9th December, 2013 (Monday)
Daily Chart
"Big Bullish candle from Friday which covered most of the loss from Tuesday, wednesday thursday"
It was a huge jump after the nfp on Friday. Price action has reentered the steep upward trendline. Price has passed the major 61.8%(which i would expect a reaction from) and hitting the 78.6% retrace from the weekly high to low. However the price action contradicts with indicators and Hourly and weekly charts. (please read below)
- It "seems" to be continuing the upward trend, (note i used the word "it seems")
- Daily chart we have drawn a fib extension from high to low and the current Fridays retrace, Our long term target would be the 161.8 / 200 extension
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Weekly Chart
"Spinning Top candle meaning indecision"
Price open and closed at very close levels, giving us a spinning top candle which means indecision in the market.
- body of the candle is still above previous weeks body and has been the same scenario for the past 5 wks
- Based on weekly chart and price action, its still on uptrend
- Stochastic is very close to crossing
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Last week, we have identified a change in trend where we for the first time traded below the ichikumo clouds as well as falling out of the trendline. We had very nice three drive down, and the downtrend was short lived after positive nfp pushed prices up pretty much recovering majority of the loss since Monday.
Although the price action shows strong bullish trend, late friday we see some rejection of the bottom side of the upward trendline which also is the 103 handle.
Hourly Chart
"Huge bullish cancle after NFP annoucement, however signs of minor exhaustion as it hits the bottom side of the upper trendline"
Last week, we have identified a change in trend where we for the first time traded below the ichikumo clouds as well as falling out of the trendline. We had very nice three drive down, and the downtrend was short lived after positive nfp pushed prices up pretty much recovering majority of the loss since Monday.
Although the price action shows strong bullish trend, late friday we see some rejection of the bottom side of the upward trendline which also is the 103 handle.
- Close to rejecting the retrace of 78.6% which is also the 103 handle
- Expect one more push up but any push going beyond last weeks high will be possible continuation of the uptrend
Outlook Trade opportunity
My Bias is to short this pair, however I see two trading opportunities. However please note that we have Japan's economic news due monday early asian session.- Long Trade - Entry after price action on 15min confirms Daily pivot (approx 102.50) and First TP is 102.70 (around 18pips), then Tp2 is fridays High or trail to Daily R1 which confluence Last Weeks High
- Short Trade - Two possible entrys,
- 1st Short Trade- If price really moves up and test last weeks high , Entry at Daily R1 (= weekly high) after price action confirms,
- 2nd Short trade - An fib extention of 200 is at 103.090 which is Friday's R3 pivot, this is more a likely scenario of where it could reject from.
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